VCN - As many big projects are behind schedule a serious shortage of electricity in the near future is inevitable. Notably, the threat of electricity shortages in the Southern region is serious.
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47 large projects behind schedule
According to the Adjusted Power Planning VII, the total capacity of power sources expected to be put into operation for 2016-2020 on the whole system is 21,650 MW.
Currently, power projects implemented in three forms of investment are: projects invested by state-owned corporations including Vietnam Electricity (EVN), Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN), and Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (TKV); projects invested in the form of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT); and projects invested in the form of Independent Power Projects (IPP).
The latest report by the Ministry of Industry and Trade on the implementation of electricity projects in the Adjusted Power Planning VII showed that of the 62 projects with a large capacity of over 200 MW, 15 projects were on schedule, while the remaining 47 projects were behind schedule or have not determined the progress compared to the schedule stated in the Adjusted Power Planning VII.
Specifically, in the total capacity for 2016-2020 (21,651 MW), EVN invested 7,185 MW (accounting for 33.2%) with 23 projects of all kinds; non-EVN power sources were 14,465 MW (accounting for 66.8%). Of the 23 projects invested by EVN, 10 projects were on schedule, and 13 projects were behind schedule or delayed. So far, 8 projects by EVN have completed construction and been put into operation, 4 projects are under construction, and 11 projects are carrying out procedures.
According to the Plan, PVN was assigned to be the investor of 8 source projects with a total capacity of 11,400 MW. There are 3 projects for 2016-2020 and 5 projects for 2021-2025. Up to now, all 8 projects have faced difficulties and obstacles and it is difficult to complete them on schedule. Currently, PVN is building 3 projects, but all are 2-3 years behind schedule; PVN is implementing investment procedures for 4 projects but they are expected to be behind schedule from 2.5-3.5 years compared to the Adjusted Power Planning VII; and 1 project of PVN has been offered to other investors.
For TKV, the number of projects implemented is four with a total capacity of 2,950 MW. Of which 2 projects are in the 2016-2020 period, and 2 projects are in the 2021-2030 period. Currently, all 4 projects are behind schedule for 2 years or more.
There are 15 BOT projects, of which one is for 2016-2020, and the rest will be implemented for 2021-2030. According to the evaluation, only 3 projects are able to be on schedule, and 12 projects are behind schedule or unable to determine the progress because of problems in negotiations.
IPP projects are also not very positive because of the 8 projects with a set capacity of 7,390 MW, only 1 project is on schedule and 2 projects are likely to be on schedule. The remaining projects have not determined the completion time.
In the plan, 5 power source projects (of which 1 project was out of planning) are for the 2021-2030 period without investors.
Regarding renewable energy projects, the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated up to now, the Government and the Ministry of Industry and Trade have approved 130 solar power projects with a capacity of about 8,500 MW and wind power projects with a capacity of about 2,000 MW. However, the renewable energy projects are concentrated in low load areas – the 110-500kV power grid infrastructure in these areas has not met the transmission requirements.
Severe power shortage in the South
According to the Adjusted Power Planning VII, to meet the needs of economic growth, by 2020, the total capacity of power plants will be about 60,000 MW; this number will be 96,500 MW by 2025 and it will reach 129,500 MW by 2030.
A total of 21,651 MW will be put into operation for 2016-2020; 38,010 MW will be put into operation for 2021-2025; and a total of 36,192 MW will be put into operation for 2026 -2030.
In fact, the total capacity of power sources that can be put into operation in the period of 2016-2030 is expected to be about 80,500 MW, lower than the Adjusted Power Planning VII by more than 15,200 MW, of which the years from 2018-2022 will be the main period for shortages. Many projects in this period are delayed for the period of 2026-2030 and most of them are thermal power projects in the South.
According to calculations, for power source projects put into operation in 2019-2020, the electricity system can meet the national electricity demand. However, it is necessary to mobilize more oil-fired thermal power with a corresponding output of 1.7 billion KWh in 2019 and 5.2 billion kWh in 2020. In the case that generating sets do not meet the operational reliability requirements, or do not have enough fuel (coal, gas) for electricity generation, Vietnam may face the risk of electricity shortages by 2020.
In the years from 2021-2025, although the maximum power source will be mobilized, the electricity system will likely fail to meet the demand for additional charge and there will be a shortage of electricity in the South, with a shortfall increasing from 3.7 billion kWh (in 2021) to nearly 10 billion kWh (in 2022). The highest shortage will be about 12 billion kWh in 2023, and then will gradually decrease to 7 billion in 2024 and 3.5 billion kWh in 2025.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the main reason for the lack of electricity in the South being higher than previous calculations is because the progress of Block B, Blue Whale gas projects was 9 months to 1 year behind schedule compared to the plan; Kien Giang 1&2 Power Plants did not meet the completion schedule in the 2021-2025 period, even delayed until after 2030; and the O Mon III project was delayed to 2025. If the Long Phu 1 power project does not meet the completion schedule in 2023, the power shortage in the South in the years 2024-2025 will be more serious.
|It is too far away to ensure electricity security in Vietnam
VCN- According to Mr. Le Van Luc, Deputy Director of the Department of Electricity and Renewable Energy ...
Currently, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has actively promoted solutions to ensure power supply for the upcoming period; and simultaneously coordinated with relevant ministries and agencies to remove difficulties in mechanisms and policies in order to promote construction investment projects, meeting electricity requirements for socio-economic development.
By Thanh Nguyen/ Ha Thanh