VCN- The Ministry of Industry and Trade has pointed out a series of factors that hinder export growth, including the US-China trade tensions affecting Vietnam's trade and slow growth of phone exports.
|Agriculture, forestry and fishery are typical commodity groups facing many export difficulties. Photo: N. Thanh|
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, import-export turnover in the last months of the year is high compared to the beginning of the year because this is the time to prepare goods for the largest shopping events, such as Christmas, New Year, Lunar New Year in Vietnam and some Asian countries.
Therefore, import turnover of consumer goods is forecasted to continue to increase in the coming months. However, export activities will not be volatile due to the impact of the global economic downturn.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has specified seven factors that hinder export growth.
Firstly, many organizations have forecasted that the world economy will continue to slow down. On November 21, 2019 the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2020. They also said there was no sign of a strong global economic recovery in 2021 due to risks from trade tensions.
Accordingly, the OECD forecasts global economic growth will increase at about 2.9% in 2020, down 0.1 percentage points compared to the forecast this organization made in last September.
Earlier, in October 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also cut its global growth forecast to 3.0% in 2019, 0.2 percentage points lower than the July forecast and the lowest level since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.
Second, US-China trade tensions continue to have a multidimensional impact on Vietnam's trade activities. In particular, the export of goods to the Chinese market still facemany difficulties due to slow economic growth and the demand decreasing.
In addition, Vietnam's exports of agricultural and aquatic products to the Chinese market also facemany obstacles due to the country's increasing inspection and quality control of imported goods.
Third, the purchasing management index (PMI), measuring the health of manufacturing and processing industries in recent months, have not been very good. In October 2019, Vietnam's PMI fell for athird month in a row, to only 50 points – the lowest level in four years. The highlight is that the number of new orders continues to increase, but the pace of increase has seen a marked slowdown.
Fourth, the export of phones of all kinds and commodities with the largest export turnover of Vietnam is tending to slow down.
Fifth, many key export items still face challenges. The EU has not removed the yellow card for Vietnamese seafood, the competition is getting stronger in exporting agricultural and aquatic products because more and more countries participate in the supply of agricultural products while demand is limited.
In addition, quality control, as well as traceability, processing capacity, preservation of agricultural products and supporting industries are issues of great concern. Meanwhile, prices of agricultural and aquatic products are in a downward trend.
Sixthly, according to the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, the total rainfall from now to the end of 2019 in the South is 10 - 30% lower than the average of many years. The flow in the rivers is short of 20-50%.
This will make drought, water shortage and saline intrusion in the dry season of 2019-2020 more serious, while saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta region will come earlier and worse than the average for many years. This may negatively affect the agricultural production activities of the region in the near future.
Seventhly, the rapid increase in exports to the US may have consequences for increasing control over imports from Vietnam.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade determined that, in the future, it will continue to closely monitor the fluctuations of the globalsituation, especially the development of the US-China trade war to take the initiative in administration and take measures to promote exports of goods that are able to take advantage of opportunities for export and strengthen strict management against the risk of trade fraud and goods origin fraud.
In addition, the solution is to focus on creating good quality goods for production, aiming to improve added value, produce products that meet quality standards, food safety and compliance in line with import market demand.
By Thanh Nguyen/Quynh Lan