September 24, 2018 16:06

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GDP growth of 7.38% is not too surprising

15:53 | 07/04/2018

VCN- Talking about GDP growth in 2018 not following the growth pattern of previous years, Assoc. Prof., Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, Deputy Head of the National Economics University said that in 2018, there would not as many breakthrough factors as in 2017. However, in terms of growth momentum, it is hard to say that 2018 is less motivated than 2017.

tang truong gdp 738 khong co gi qua bat ngo Market value of G-bonds equivalent to 20% of GDP
tang truong gdp 738 khong co gi qua bat ngo Revenue from Severance Tax accounted for only 1.36% - 4.27% of total State revenue
tang truong gdp 738 khong co gi qua bat ngo Fresh impetus for economic growth in 2018
tang truong gdp 738 khong co gi qua bat ngo
Assoc. Prof., Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, Deputy Head of the National Economics University.

What do you think about GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 which has just been announced?

In my opinion, the assessment of Ministry of Planning and Investment on economic growth in the first quarter of 2018 is relatively appropriate. This result comes from objective reasons, for example, in the first quarter of 2017, Samsung encountered many difficulties, but in the first quarter of 2018, this company worked better. Formosa in the first quarter of 2018 also had positive business results, contributing to the high result of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 at 7.38%. This growth is not unexpected, but it was predicted before. It is noted that from the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2017 the economy starts to accelerate, the growth rate in the first quarter of 2018 will have positive results. Therefore, to be exact, it should be compared to the growth of the fourth quarter of 2017.

According to the General Statistics Office, in 2018, growth in the next quarter will be lower. How do you assess the cause of this phenomenon?

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, it is difficult to maintain a high growth rate as in the first quarter of 2018. By looking back to 2017, quarter-on-quarter growth is higher than the previous quarter. In 2018, the growth of the first quarter is too high, while there are not many breakthrough factors like 2017, so the growth rate among quarters will not be able to maintain the high growth rate as the first quarter of 2018. I think the Ministry of Planning and Investment's explanation is relatively reasonable. However, in my opinion, this is merely the statistics. In terms of growth dynamics, it is difficult to say that 2018 will be less motivated than 2017, because 2018 has better signals, for example: the newly signed CPTPP will be the driving force for Vietnam economy. In addition, Vietnam is still in the region attracting FDI well. Thus, the growth drivers of 2018 and 2017 can not change much.

In your opinion, with the growth of the first quarter of 2018, can we believe that the limitations of the economy have been overcome?

I think that for Vietnam, even with GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018, the problems that have existed so far have not changed much. The economy still depends on FDI, this is not bad but if we want to develop domestic enterprises and an independent economy with higher autonomy, these problems are still not resolved. This quarter has not seen a breakthrough, because the basic issues of Vietnam enterprises such as productivity, competitiveness are unresolved. The business environment of Vietnam such as infrastructure, information technology, procedures has been improved, but not much. It should be noted that when comparing improvements, Vietnam is not only comparing with itself, but also with other countries. In my opinion, in 2018, Vietnam’s GDP shall be about 6.8%, but the important thing is what Vietnam's economic achievements are, how many Vietnamese businesses are successful, and what the Vietnamese economy is contributing to the world economy.

At the beginning of 2018, there were concerns about inflation with many forecasts of high economic growth, and that CPI also will increase over the same period in 2017. What do you think about inflation pressure this year?

I think inflation will not change much if we maintain a stable macro-economy. Of course, inflationary pressures will also come when there is too much public investment. The issue of inflation is completely dependent on fiscal policy, monetary policy, interest rate management and how the banking system is managed. For example, if we "pump" too much capital into real estate, it can lead to crisis, like "bubbles". However, I think that Vietnamese policymakers are alert enough to be aware of the bubbles in the real estate market. If there is good control over these issues, there will not be too much pressure on inflation.

tang truong gdp 738 khong co gi qua bat ngo Greater efforts needed to achieve minimum of 6.7% growth in 2018

At a regular government meeting in Hanoi on April 2, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc asked cabinet ...

Thank you, Sir!

By Thu Hien/ Hoang Anh