VCN- The export growth rate of the country has signs of decline in the recent months and showed its dependence on some major commodities, especially phones.
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|Imports and exports at Hai Phong International Container Port. Photo: T.B|
Unstably up and down
According to the latest statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the country’s export turnover in June was estimated at US$ 19.6 billion, declining by 1.8% compared to the previous month.
Total export turnover in the first six months of 2018 was estimated at US$ 113.93 billion, increasing by 16% compared to the same period in 2017. The major export commodities in June and the first half of 2018 are phones and accessories; Computer, electronic products and components; Textiles and garments; Footwear; Wood and wooden product; Fishery product and etc.
The two major commodities with declining export turnovers in the first half of 2018, were coffee and crude oil. Accordingly, the coffee’s export turnover in June was estimated at US$ 287 million, decreasing by 2.4%. In the first half of the year it was US$ 1.98 billion, a decrease of 6% compared to the same period in 2017.
The export volume of crude oil in June was estimated at 289,000 tons, down 14.4% with export turnover of US$ 165 million, down 18% compared to May. The export volume of this commodity in the first half of the year was estimated at US$ 1 billion, down 50.7% in volume and 32.2% in value compared to the same period in 2017.
Export turnover in June continues to decline compared to May, and this is not a positive trend for the country’s imports.
The country’s imports from the beginning of the year to now have shown that this is the third month in the last six months that export turnover has shrunk compared to the previous month.
Specifically, besides June, export turnover in April only reached US$ 18.4 billion, decreased by US$ 2.8 billion compared to March. Previously, export turnover in February only reached US$ 14.33 billion, a decrease of US$ 5.9 billion compared to January.
The decline in export turnover in February was due to Tet holiday, but the decline in April and June need to be thoroughly explained. Because, this decline is not in line with the common export rule in recent years.
For example, in the first half of 2017, the export turnover is in accordance with the rule that the next month is higher than the previous month. Export turnover in June of 2017 slightly decreased by over US$ 100 million compared to May, and February was Tet holiday, therefore the decrease compared to January is normal with the rule. Hence, the continuous increase and decrease in the first 6 months of 2018 is an abnormal development.
According to the reporter's observation, in first half of 2018, only two months have export turnovers from US$ 20 billion per month. Export turnover in January reached US$ 20.22 billion and in March of US$ 21.133 billion.
The growth rate of export turnover in the first 6 months of 2018 decreased sharply compared to the same period last year (growth rate in the first 6 months of 2017 reached 24.1%).
|Export in the first six months of 2107 and 2018. Chart by: T.B|
Greatly depends on the phones
The decline in exports in the first six months of 2018 showed that the phones commodity plays key role and has great impact.
The growth rate of export turnover of phones in the first 3 months of 2018 reached 60% compared to the same period in 2017, the country’s export turnover also highly increased. Specifically, in January, export turnover of phones increased by 69.3%, the country’s export turnover up to 41.6%; In February, export turnover of phones increased by 56.6%, the country’s export turnover up 26.1%; In February, export turnover of phones increased 62.6%, the country’s export turnover up 24.8%.
In April, the growth rate of phones fell to 32.5%, the country’s export turnover decreased to 19.2%. In May, export turnover of phones increased by 18.7%, the country’s export turnover increased by 17.3%. In June, the growth rate decreased by 15.4% and the country’s export turnover declined to 16%.
Thus, the growth rate in January increased by 41.6%, the country's export growth rate reduced by 25.6%, country's export growth rate of phones reduced by 53.9%.
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Of course, the decline in turnover of telephones is not the only reason for the decrease in the country's export turnover, but with the proportion accounting for less than 20% of total export turnover of the country (depending on each period), the increase and decrease of this commodity will have the greatest impact on the country’s export activities.
Another comparison to realize the impact of the phones commodity is the correlation with commodities in the agricultural sector. Over the past years, agriculture has been a traditional export sector, contributing major commodities such as fishery products, furniture, coffee, rice, cashew nuts, which are major commodity groups in the world market.
According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, it is estimated that in the first 6 months of 2018, the total import and export turnover of the country reached US$ 225.29 billion, an increase of 13% over the same period of 2017 and the country had a trade surplus of US$ 2.57 billion (Import turnover were estimated at US$ 111.36 billion, up 10.2% over the same period of 2017).
By Thai Binh/Ngoc Loan