(HQ Online)- Thanks to the clear improvement of the business environment, credit establishments (Ces) were quite optimistic and confident in new developments in 2017.
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The banks put more expectations on business conditions in 2017. Photo: H.Diu
According to results of the survey on business trend of credit establishments by the Statistics Forecasting Department and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the banks said that the overall business situation of the banking sector constantly improved over the quarters of 2016 and is expected to continue to improve in 2017.
Most credit institutions identified that Nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio / credit balance of their units in the fourth quarter of 2016 was unchanged or decreased compared to the third quarter of 2016 and expecting to be unchanged or decrease during the first quarter of 2017 and continue to decrease by the end of 2017.
Specifically, similar to the survey results of last year, the interest rate of banks is expected to be stable by most credit establishments in 2017; a few credit establishments expect interest rates may rise, but the increase is very slight (0.2% on average) over the next year. However, actual developments in 2016 showed that lending interest rates were stable.
According to the banks, the liquidity of the banking system continued to improve in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to the previous quarter, currently maintaining a state of "good" in both VND and foreign currencies. Throughout 2017, most banks expect the liquidity situation of the banking system will continue to be positive for both VND and foreign currencies.
The survey showed that the banks continue to be optimistic about their ability to attract mobilized capital from the economy in 2017 in front of forecasts of a stable macroeconomic environment, higher growth than the previous year, stable currency and inflation within the safety margin will further support the liquidity of the banking system.
Mobilized capital of the whole banking system is expected with average annual growth of 4.57% (VND: + 5.13%; foreign currency: + 0.75%) in the first quarter of 2017 and increasing by 16.76% ( VND: + 18.12%; foreign currency: + 0.95%) in 2017.
Contributing mainly on expectations of general capital mobilization increasing is expectations of growth in VND capital mobilization, in which mobilized capital in foreign currencies increased slightly and negligibly (less than 1%, while in 2015 increased nearly with the growth of VND capital mobilization).
This expectation is quite close to the trend and actual developments in the market, simultaneously reflecting the success of the central bank in the effort to fight dollarisation, against hoarding of foreign currency in the economy.
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Total outstanding credit of the banking system is expected by credit establishments with growth of 4.1% (VND: + 4.29%; foreign currency: + 4.52%) in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter; increasing by 19.12% (VND: + 20.19%; foreign currency: + 10.01%) in 2017.
Hương Dịu/ Hoàng Nam